As the frenetic pace of the year winds down for the summer, it might be good to reflect on what lies ahead for Israel and the Palestinians in the immediate future. The great hopes elicited by Yasir Arafat’s demise last November have, by now, faded. Palestinian terrorist attacks and Israeli reprisals are becoming daily news items once again. Arafat’s plan to radicalize the Palestinian body politic has succeeded all too well. Indeed, with the rise of Mahmoud Abbas, the reality on the ground has changed hardly at all.

 

How do things look eight months after Arafat’s death? About as bad as can be. Specifically, it looks like Abbas will be leading the Palestinians to war, a war set to commence upon completion of the Israeli retreat from Gaza in August 2005. Consider these recent developments: 

• Instead of arresting terrorists, as required by the February 2005 cease-fire between Israel and the Palestinians, Abbas has decided to incorporate them into his security forces. The Associated Press explains how the ranking of these terrorists will be determined: “A high school diploma … is worth eight points, while a year in an Israeli prison or on the run counts for two points each. Gunmen don’t get credit for time served in Palestinian lockups, but they win extra points if they were wounded by Israeli army fire, or had their homes demolished.” Sadly, the Israeli authorities have accepted that even convicted Palestinian killers may carry weapons. Can you imagine these people foiling, rather than fomenting, terror attacks against Israel?

•  Palestinian Media Watch, the Center for Special Studies, and other organizations have extensively documented Palestinian political speeches, newspaper articles, mosque sermons, school textbooks, and wall posters that remain as rabidly anti-Semitic as during the worst days of Arafat.

•  As under Arafat, the PA continues to play the old game of “catch and release”, arresting terrorists, and then allowing them quietly to escape from prison. Two examples of these revolving-door arrests: two perpetrators who assisted a suicide bombing in Tel Aviv in February 2005 left jail in April; and the Palestinian police arrested their first Hamas terrorist on May 2^nd, but promptly released him one day later.

 At this stage, it is hard to disagree that both Sharon and Bush erred badly in betting on Mahmoud Abbas. And yet, now that they find themselves so deeply invested in the success of his political career, neither of them is in a position to concede the error.

 

The planned Israeli withdrawal from Gaza in August is likely to precipitate new rounds of violence. One could come as early as July, as the Israel Defense Forces engage in a massive sweep to try to ensure that the retreat doesn’t occur under Palestinian fire.

 

More violence is likely to follow in September, as the Palestinians, with Gaza firmly in hand, begin a new assault on Israel proper. This round will feature the substantial rocket arsenal that Hamas has been amassing for the past several months. Israel’s former chief of staff, Moshe Ya’alon, has gone on record predicting that, “Immediately after the disengagement, we can expect a burst of terrorism.”

 

The one thing that might prevent this tragedy from playing out fully would be a Hamas victory in the Palestinian council elections scheduled to take place in mid-July. It seems only logical that the Gaza withdrawal be postponed, or even canceled, should Hamas do well in these elections (and early indications are that they will). There is no reason for Israel to precipitate the rise of a violent, radical “Hamasistan” right on their Gazan doorstep.

 

So, there are several different possibilities that could unfold for Israel and the Palestinians over the next few months. The common element among all of them is that by High Holy Days, the Arab-Israeli neighborhood will in all likelihood be even more delicate, and more prone to violence than it is today.

 

I hope I’m wrong about all this, but I don’t think that I am.

 

Best wishes for a warm and beautiful summer to all,

Rabbi Alan Green